Case StudyPaid Media (Meta)

$500K to $35M/month. Engineered, not accidental.

How Interconnections built a scaling operating system for the biggest player in prediction markets — combining event-native creative velocity, structural consolidation, and truth-based measurement to scale Meta spend 70x in 8 months.

70x
Spend Scaled
187K
Peak Monthly Checkouts
$35.25M
Peak Monthly Spend
8 months
Time to Scale

The biggest player in prediction markets needed a scaling system.

Our client is the first CFTC-regulated exchange in the U.S. that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events — economic indicators, political developments, weather events, sports outcomes, and cultural moments. Unlike traditional trading platforms, demand is highly event-driven and attention-sensitive. Performance spikes are directly correlated with real-world trends, making scaling fundamentally different from typical ecommerce or fintech.

IndustryPrediction Markets

CFTC-regulated event-based trading exchange

ChallengeScaling Beyond $500K/mo

Spending $300K–$500K monthly but unable to scale predictably

Primary ChannelMeta

Core growth channel requiring deep paid media expertise

Primary KPICPCI

Cost Per Checkout Initiated, validated via AppsFlyer + backend

It wasn't CPCI volatility. It was structural.

At first glance, the issue appeared to be CPCI volatility and creative fatigue. Deeper analysis revealed three structural problems that made scaling impossible.

01

Attribution Misalignment

Meta-reported Checkouts Initiated were inflated during certain periods. November 2024 showed CPCI around $49 — but this was inaccurate. Meta was over-counting, and scaling decisions were being made on distorted data.

02

No Scaling Operating System

The account lacked consolidation discipline, bid control guardrails, dayparting strategy, and intra-day monitoring protocol. At high budgets, this becomes catastrophic.

03

Creative Was Not Event-Native

The platform is inherently event-driven. Generic creatives do not scale during attention spikes. The system needed daily creative velocity aligned with real-world trends — sports, culture, weather, politics.

From volatile spend to a scaling operating system.

When Interconnections began structured scaling in June 2025, the client had real spend capability but lacked the infrastructure to scale predictably.

Before — Pre-Structured Scaling

Spending $300K–$500K/mo with no predictable path forward

  • Jan 2025: $334K spend,$123 CPCI
  • Feb 2025: $435K spend,$105 CPCI
  • Mar 2025: $198K spend,$85 CPCI
  • Apr 2025: $456K spend,$57 CPCI
  • May 2025: $538K spend,$101 CPCI
  • Campaigns running across multiple objectives
  • Generic creative — not event-aligned
  • Meta over-reporting Checkouts Initiated
  • No intra-day optimization or dayparting
After — Structured Scaling System

Scaled to $35M/mo with disciplined infrastructure

  • Jan 2026: $35.25M spend,$188 CPCI70x spend
  • Dec 2025: 124,961 checkouts,$187 CPCI15x volume
  • Peak month: $35.25M spend,187,020 CI22x CI
  • Consolidation-first campaign architecture
  • Daily event-native creative velocity (8–9/day)
  • Truth-based measurement via AppsFlyer + backend
  • Dayparting, bid controls, intra-day monitoring

The operating system Interconnections built.

Structure

Campaign Structure Rebuild

Cleaned up campaign objectives so all learning signals aligned toward Checkout Initiated. Consolidated the account approximately every third day during aggressive scaling.

  • Unified objective alignment
  • Consolidation every 3rd day at scale
  • Reduced fragmentation for capital control
  • Cleaner structure for intra-day adjustments
Creative

Creative Production Engine

Creative velocity became the dominant growth driver. 8–9 new creatives per day across multiple formats and angles, all tied to real-world event cycles.

  • Videos outperformed statics (~50% more spend)
  • Event-based angles: NFL, NBA, NHL, weather, culture
  • UGC, head-to-head trade slips, news-style headlines
  • Daily batch launches with data-driven format decisions
Measurement

Tracking & Truth Validation

Corrected tracking before scaling. Meta was over-reporting Checkouts Initiated, which would have caused false scaling signals at high budgets.

  • AppsFlyer truth validation layer
  • Backend incremental conversion checks
  • Daily performance reconciliation
  • Multi-time-per-day reviews at peak scale
Capital Control

Budget & Scaling Logic

Scaling at $1M–$3M per day requires strict controls. Interconnections built guardrails that allowed aggressive budget increases while protecting downside risk.

  • Dayparting: ads off 12AM–7AM
  • Cost caps and bid caps for CPCI guardrails
  • Advantage+ placements (restricted placements failed)
  • Intra-day monitoring for creative fatigue and CPCI drift

8 months of exponential growth.

Jun 2025

Structured Scaling Begins

Interconnections began structured scaling with unified objectives, truth-based measurement via AppsFlyer, and daily creative production. Established the operating system foundation.

$885K spend | 8,510 CI | $104 CPCI
Jul 2025

Creative Velocity Ramps

Two dedicated designers onboarded. Creative production hit 8–9 new assets per day. Event-native angles began outperforming generic creative significantly.

$985K spend | 9,802 CI | $100 CPCI
Aug 2025

Crossed $1M Monthly

Consolidation discipline proved its value — fewer campaigns with stronger learning density. Dayparting implemented to cut overnight waste.

$1.22M spend | 11,175 CI | $109 CPCI
Sep 2025

First Major Scale Jump

NFL season kickoff drove massive event-based creative performance. Spend jumped 3.4x in a single month. Bid controls kept CPCI within guardrails during aggressive scaling.

$4.19M spend | 36,253 CI | $115 CPCI
Oct 2025

Approaching $10M/Month

Intra-day monitoring became critical at this scale. External UGC agencies brought on for additional creative capacity. Advantage+ placements confirmed as optimal after placement restriction tests failed.

$8.91M spend | 53,749 CI | $165 CPCI
Nov 2025

Election Cycle + Cultural Spikes

Political event contracts drove attention spikes. However, political-heavy creative angles failed to sustain at this budget level — sports and culture angles remained dominant.

$14.32M spend | 60,769 CI | $235 CPCI
Dec 2025

Record Checkout Volume

CPCI optimized back down through consolidation and creative refresh cycles. Checkout volume doubled from prior month. The operating system proved its resilience at scale.

$23.41M spend | 124,961 CI | $187 CPCI
Jan 2026

Peak Scale: $35.25M

Peak monthly spend reached $35.25M with 187,020 checkouts initiated. The system Interconnections built was handling $1M–$3M in daily spend with disciplined control.

$35.25M spend | 187,020 CI | $188 CPCI

What this case proves.

01

Creative Velocity Is the Primary Scaling Lever

8–9 new creatives per day, aligned with real-world events, ensured the algorithm always had fresh fuel. Without daily creative production, no amount of structural optimization would have sustained 70x scale.

02

Truth-Based Measurement Prevents Catastrophic Scaling Errors

Meta over-reported Checkouts Initiated during key periods. Without AppsFlyer validation and backend checks, scaling decisions would have been based on inflated data — a disaster at $35M/month.

03

Consolidation Beats Fragmentation at High Budgets

Fewer campaigns meant stronger learning density, better algorithmic optimization, and tighter capital control. Consolidating every third day became one of the most important levers in the entire engagement.

Ready to build your scaling operating system?

This was not a tactic. It was an operating system. If your brand has demand potential but lacks scalable structure, Interconnections can help.

Drop us an email. No pitch deck. No pressure. Just a real conversation about engineered growth.

Get in Touch

Or email us directly at hello@theinterconnections.com